INFOGRAPHICS. Covid-19: Number of cases, hospitalizations… Are we at the end of the epidemic?

The Covid-19 epidemic seems to be in bad shape, but what is it? Look at the numbers. (© Frederic Bourgeois)

On March 16, 2020, President Emmanuel Macron announced to all French people that they would be imprisoned. It was the first act in the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic.

Since then, water has flowed under the bridges and two years later, almost to the day, on March 14, Wearing a face mask is no longer mandatory. in most closed places and the vaccine pass, suspended

In addition, this Tuesday, March 8, 2022, many French people consider themselves on social networks to be outside the pandemic. That it’s all behind them. Behind us.

But what is it? Look at the statistics.

The number of positive cases is stagnating a bit

According to figures from Public Health France, January 25, 2022 is the day when the most positive cases have been counted since the start of the pandemic. 366,555 reported cases (a seven-day smoothed average).

From this date the curve started a dizzying fallwithout ever rising again, reaching 53,152 cases on Wednesday, March 2, 2022, still on a smoothed average.

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And since then, the figure has fallen, but not as much as before. We can almost talk of stagnation† As of March 7, 2022, the last known figures are, 52,723 cases were counted, smoothed in the count over 7 days.

The percentage of positive tests increases very (very) slightly

As of January 31, 2022, 31.5% of the tests performed were positive for Covid. As of March 1 this figure had fallen to 18%.

But a week later, on March 7, this curve, which hadn’t risen since January 31, tilted slightly upward to reach a positivity of 18.3%.

Hospital admissions have largely declined, but are now stagnating

On April 14, 2020, 32,131 Covid-related hospitalizations were counted. Then yo-yo the song, with successive waves and variations appearing and disappearing. 4512 on August 29, 2020, 33,466 on November 16, 2020.

On February 7, 2022, the figure reached its all-time high with 33,447 hospital admissions† On March 8, 2022, the time had come: 21,899.

The CPR curve is stagnant

And as for ICU admissions, if we hope the curve will never be as high as April 8, 2020 (7,019 people admitted to ICU), then it’s slowly starts to rise again.

While it has been going down step by step since January 12, 2022 (3985), it stopped on March 5 with 2075 people in intensive care. On March 7, 2022, there were still 14 people in intensive care, or 2089. On March 8, the curve started to decline with 2,036 people in intensive care.

Incidence stabilizes

The incidence, which represents the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants, is finally stabilizing, after a huge increase on January 25, 2022, when this number reached 3,783 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

On March 5, the last known data, the incidence was 542. A very sharp decrease since January.

There are always deaths in the hospital

But even if most numbers seem to be declining, stagnant or increasing only slightly, it should be remembered that the Covid-19 is still there.

It is, of course, far from the worst time, where we could be approaching nearly 400 daily deaths, but even two years after the epidemic started, there are still deaths in hospital. This Monday, March 7, 2022, on a smoothed 7-day average, 152 people have died in the hospital from the corona virus.

“We have to be careful”

What needs to be remembered from these numbers is that the virus is still there. ” It is a favorable periodbut we must remain very careful,” said François Bricaire, former head of the infectious and tropical diseases department of the Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital, contacted by

Many people are aware of this. Not everyone has finished the mask on the street yet, although it has not been mandatory for a few weeks.

Francois BricaireFormer Head of the Infectious and Tropical Diseases Department of the Hospital Pitié-Salpêtrière

“Especially because we are not immune to the emergence of a new variant,” adds Olivier Bouchaud, infectious diseases specialist at the hospital of Avicenne in Bobigny, together with “It cannot be ruled out that a strain originates from a country where the vaccination rate is quite low. †

Covid-19, another “flu”?

On the other hand, Olivier Bouchaud is more optimistic. He’s not worried about lifting the upcoming restrictions:

The vaccination rate in France is very high. In the latest figures, none point to a resumption of the epidemic. The worst is behind us.

Olivier BouchaudInfectiologist at Avicenne Hospital in Bobigny

He thinks there will be cause for concern if the numbers rise again four or five days in a row.

According to him, “the epidemic side is probably behind us. We should be entering a phase in the next few days endemic† A “possible” scenario according to François Bricaire.

That is, if everything goes according to the latest predictions, the Covid submarine will act and cause damage, especially in the autumn-winter.

According to the two infectiologists, we might therefore be on the way to an annual vaccination to fight this virus. Just like with the flu.

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