the professions that will recruit with vengeance by 2030

Climate crisis, digitization, aging… the labor market must be thoroughly turned upside down in a few years’ time. The economic recovery in 2021 has revived many recruitment tensions in certain sectors hit hard by the pandemic. However, the war currently affecting Ukraine could spell a blow to economic growth in the Old Continent and the number of recruits in the coming months.

In this difficult context, France Strategy and the statistics department of the Ministry of Labor (Dares) have made an extremely detailed forecast of the professions that will recruit the most in the next ten years. “By 2030, the hiring needs arising from end-of-career departures and employment dynamics should be around 800,000 per year. Achieving these hiring levels presupposes that the vacancies to be filled are actually filled and that young people who entering the labor market find their place there”, write Gilles de Margerie, Commissioner General of France Strategy and Michel Houdebine, Director of Dares in their introductory remarks. This report, which was initially to be unveiled before the pandemic, was eventually postponed to 2022 to take into account the impact of the health crisis in the scenarios studied.

Computing and health topped the list of the most dynamic creations

Unsurprisingly, the most dynamic job creation relates to computer engineers (+26%) with 115,000 additional jobs over the next decade compared to 2019. Nurses and midwives (+18%), home helpers (+18%), commercial will follow. and technical-commercial executives (17%) and finally care providers (+15%). What is striking is that 5 of the first 15 represent professions in the health and care sector”, Cédric Audenis summarized during a press conference.

The pandemic and the aging population have shed a sharp light on the needs in the health professions deemed “essential” during waves of infection and repeated incarcerations. Finally, other jobs in the handling, public works or industry also feature in the top 15 of jobs experiencing strong growth.

Thousands of vacancies for cleaners, teachers and home helpers

In addition to the net job creations, the researchers also took into account the functions to be filled after the numerous retirements. “90% of the 800,000 vacancies to be filled each year are linked to end-of-career renewals” specified Michel Houdebine. The retirement of the last generations of baby boomers born after the Second World War should lead to a further sharp increase in job vacancies in the coming years.

Of the occupations identified by the statisticians, the functions of maintenance staff (488,000 positions), teachers (329,000 positions) or domestic help (305,000) are well ahead. Typically, the dynamics for cleaners or teachers is explained by leaving at the end of their career. On the other hand, some vacancies can be explained by net creations or newly created professions in IT or for engineers and technical executives in industry for example.

Tensions to be expected in the legal profession, in the paramedical sector or in the transport sector

The recovery in 2021 has revealed strong recruitment tensions between supply and demand in certain sectors, such as the hospitality industry or the hotel industry. In their thick report, the economists at France Strategy and Dares tried to anticipate the various imbalances that could arise in the future. For example, researchers have distinguished different categories of professions. The first concerns professions that could experience an aggravation of tension due to the lack of attractiveness. These are, for example, home helpers, domestic workers or drivers of machines for buildings and public works.

The second category concerns occupations that are “expected” under stress. These professions are not currently experiencing any particular difficulties, but businesses may experience them. These are, for example, skilled craftsmen, maintenance personnel or textile and leather workers. These imbalances could be absorbed by the ability to attract the unemployed and workers in other occupations, inactive or immigrants, explain the authors of this comprehensive study. Other occupations that require technical skills are still expected to face strong tensions, such as skilled metal workers, construction technicians and managers.

On the other hand, tensions could be shifted towards certain professions, such as employees and supervisors in the hospitality industry, hairdressers and beauticians, banking and insurance technicians and accountants.

200,000 job creations linked to the ecological transition

The climate crisis could lead to a lot of job creation within 10 years. The national low-carbon scenario (SNBC) and emissions reduction targets should lead to an increase in investment in key sectors estimated at one point of GDP each year, or about 10 billion, knowing that economists estimate the required investment would be much higher to respect the Paris agreements concluded in 2015.

“Achieving low-carbon targets by 2030 makes it possible to promote certain sectors, such as construction, which should create 100,000 jobs with the energy renovation of buildings. There are no so-called ‘green’ professions in our nomenclature. On the other hand, there are greening professions such as study and research staff to do green innovation,” explains Cécile Jolly of France Strategy.

In this regard, experts from France Strategy and the Ministry of Labor are counting on an additional 120,000 jobs in construction, 45,000 jobs in legal activities and consultancy, 15,000 jobs in research and development and 15,000 jobs in agriculture. In total, 200,000 jobs could be created. The need to accelerate training in ecological transition professions is becoming urgent.