The war in Ukraine, Macron’s “bulletproof”?

Exclusive. Frédéric Dabi, Director General of Ifop, and Jean-Philippe Dubrulle, Director of Studies Analyzing for Paris Match the eighth week of our Ifop Fiducial survey for Paris Match-LCI-Sud-Radio, #LaPrésidettielleEnTempsRéel.

Emmanuel Macron’s curve continues to rise! After peaking at 31.5% on Wednesday, the outgoing president ends the week at 31% of voting intentions, up two points in one week and five points in two weeks. As a reminder, the only other presidential candidate to have accomplished such a feat in such a short period of time was… Emmanuel Macron himself, in 2017, having gathered François Bayrou. The continued rise in voting intentions in favor of the president also marks a successful start to the campaign, insofar as his descent into the arena hasn’t affected his alleged score.

This “immunity” is, of course, due to the context of the war in Ukraine, which grants double protection to the outgoing president: on the one hand, the “flag effect” that unites the population around the figure of the army chief; on the other hand, a logic of distinction of Emmanuel Macron vis-à-vis his competitors, which failed to impose itself as a credible alternative to a head of state already doing business to manage the great geopolitical crisis we live in. However, a new front is opening up for the presidential candidate: that of the pension reform, with the announcement of a postponement of the statutory retirement age to 65. This shock measure, which echoes Emmanuel Macron’s recent remarks that we collectively “need to work more”, will trip the candidate at the top of the voting intentions, or will he step over this obstacle like all the previous ones? Reply next week.

Battle for third place

While Marine Le Pen appeared to be alone in her job for two weeks as Emmanuel Macron’s challenger – she ends the week with 17.5% of the voting intentions – her pursuers find themselves in a handkerchief to battle for third place. Éric Zemmour comes forward today with 12.5% ​​of the voting intentions, ahead of Valérie Pécresse’s 12%, after a week where both continued to pass each other – like the candidate of Reconquest and that of the National Rally in mid-February, but it was then for second place. If Éric Zemmour has managed to stop the trap that started with the Russian offensive in Ukraine, he has not yet started “recovery” as we have seen after his own disabled children. Valérie Pécresse, she sees her candidacy weaken more and more, reaching new lows: 12%, her worst first-round score since her nomination in the Republican primaries last December; 37.5% is also his worst performance since Rolling started in a hypothetical second round against Emmanuel Macron. However, the right-wing rivals aren’t the only ones battling for third place – an essential step in aiming for the second round: in an ambush, Jean-Luc Mélenchon climbs to 10.5% of the voting intentions (i.e. a drop of one point in a week).

A Jadot phase

Could the unrest within Europe Ecologie Les Verts have had a beneficial clarifying effect? Yannick Jadot posted one of his best scores since the start of the Rolling this week, with 6% of the voting intentions in his favor (+1 point in one week, unprecedented level since January 21). Although Jean-Luc Mélenchon distanced himself, his candidacy so far has not been deflated and he has not fallen victim to a “helpful vote” on the left – it was pressured by the Insoumis as their supporters. Yannick Jadot is thus ahead of Fabien Roussel (4%), who was able to overtake the environmental candidate several times. Anne Hidalgo, for her part, is stagnating at 2% of voting intentions (-1 point in a week), without Christiane Taubira’s withdrawal having increased her electoral capital.

Any reproduction prohibited