War in Ukraine: Here are 12 foods whose price will rise in France

If the crisis in Ukraine continues, an increase in food products in supermarkets will be felt. (©volff / Adobe Stock)

Since February 24, 2022, Russia has invaded Ukraine. The economic consequences were quick to assert themselves across Europe, especially on fuel and gas, whose prices continue to rise.

But this country is also a major agricultural exporter and many food products are expected to become more expensive in France. Why ? And which products are involved? For which increase? We decipher for you.

Flour

Ukraine is a very large exporter of agricultural commodities. The country offers 12% of world wheat. But France is also a major producer of wheat.

“So on the face of it, this shouldn’t affect us since France produces its wheat for its people and exports abroadso we don’t depend on Ukraine to make our flour and bread, for example,” explains to . news.fr Dominique Anract, President of the Confectioners’ Confederation.

But the problem is that the price of wheat is global, it is located in Chicago. So since Ukraine, which sends a lot abroad, is currently blocking its exports, countries in need of wheat will rush to other producing countries. There will be speculation and prices will rise.

Dominique AnractPresident of the Confectioners’ Confederation

“The ton has risen to almost 400 euros in recent days, This is unheard of † Wheat prices have never been so high,” adds Dominique Anract. In the long run, a global imbalance would lead to a sharp rise in the price of flour

“So far we have not seen any real impact on the price of flour as millers have been hedged in wheat for the next three to six months. They have already stocked up on wheat, which they have bought for a reasonable price. However, if we stay at 400 euros per tonne in the long run, we would have a increase in flour by about 30% † he analyzes.

The consequences were therefore felt earlier, for the consumer, “in the summer, or at the beginning of the school year. But don’t worry, for now there is no shortage † †

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The president of the Confederation of Confectioners adds that a request has been made to the government to obtain ” a quote about the price of wheat in France, for it is a pity to have wheat in abundance in our country but still be affected by this international imbalance. †

The bread

Dominique Anract confirms it: it is still too early to know the real impact of this blockade on bakers and . to analyse the price of bread

But if the rise in wheat has an impact on flour, then logically bread should also be affected. “If the flour needs 30% more, the baguette, meanwhile, will not increase by the same percentage. She still could increase by 5 or 10 cents, what remains for sale to the consumer”, continues Dominique Anract.

But the increase in wheat and flour is not the main factor increasing the baguette, as flour represents “only 5% of the total cost of bread” : most of the price of the production of this food is in the fixed costs of the bakers

“The price of energy has risen (gas, electricity, etc.) since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, and bakers have large energy needs, with their gas or electric ovens and their costs for water, rent, their workers to pay. .. All that represents about 20% of their balance sheet. If they don’t change their prices, things get complicated for them,” notes Dominique Anract.

“Right now we are at the beginning of the crisis, so these increases, even if they are crazy, are being buffered by the millers and bakers behind them, who try not to push their price too much,” concludes the president of the Confederation from Confectioners.

Pork

And wheat isn’t just needed to make flour and bread: it helps feed the animals on farms, just like rapeseed, corn and soybeans. And to grow their crops, farmers fertilizer… who come from Ukraine.

“But it is mainly the costs of energy that affect the meat price : Russian gas and fuel make it possible to drive our tractors, to heat our buildings…”, laments Cédric Henri, president of the FDSEA (Departmental Federation of Peasant Unions) in Ille-et-Vilaine. He himself is in charge of a poultry and dairy farm.

The worst is for pork producers! Their margins were already low, but with the war in Ukraine they will eventually go bankrupt if they are not helped…”

Cedric HenryPresident of the FDSEA 35 and farmer

So we could see “very quickly” the price of ham and other cuts of pork are rising, “maybe even… by 30%, futures ! “says Cedric Henri.

Poultry and eggs

The same applies in poultry farms where meat and eggs are produced.

We need wheat, canola, corn and soy to feed poultry. These are crops that need maintenance, with agricultural machinery whose prices are rising. The fuel to run them is very expensive for us!

Cedric HenryPresident of the FDSEA 35 and farmer

And the chicks, when they are born, have to spend a week in a heated building to look after their well-being, the farmer explains. With all these burdens piling up, producers are struggling to make margins. And the end product is also increasing in the supermarket the chicken Which Eggs.

Milk, cream and butter

the producers of milk are less affected by the crisis in Ukraine to feed their cows: “They eat grass, so because there is no market for weedthe farmers do not see a big difference in their spending”, the chairman of the FDSEA 35 further analyzes.

On the other hand, they still need fuel for their tractors, and energy in general, so this ultimately affects the price of their products.

Cedric HenryPresident of the FDSEA 35 and farmer

In this way, the milk could eventually increase, and with it cream and butter† “The entire value chain is out of balance! » remarks the farmer;

We add a crisis to the crisis! [du Covid, NDLR]

Cedric HenryPresident of the FDSEA 35 and farmer

Finally, almost all farm animal products are affected in some way.

Pastries and pastries

And since milk, butter, cream, eggs and flour could rise, as could energy costs, the price of cakes made by bakers would automatically increase.

Rapeseed and sunflower oil

The oil production of rapeseed and sunflower are made in France, but they also require a lot of energy to operate agricultural machinery. “And then rapeseed is also indexed on a world market whose price has gone up”, Cédric Henri indignantly.

The glass ceiling for farmers didn’t just burst, it exploded!

Cedric HenryPresident of the FDSEA 35 and farmer

As early as February, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations published its monthly report on the world food situation. “The FAO food price index hit a new record in February,” the organization wrote.

This led to the conclusion an increase in the prices of grains, vegetable oils, dairy products and meat† Increases that will therefore continue to break records, should the war in Ukraine last.

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